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dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Sandraen
dc.contributor.authorNautz, Dieteren
dc.date.accessioned2010-07-29-
dc.date.accessioned2010-07-30T09:14:51Z-
dc.date.available2010-07-30T09:14:51Z-
dc.date.issued2010-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/37077-
dc.description.abstractThis paper investigates why financial market experts misperceive the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor-rule-type reaction function of the ECB, we use qualitative survey data on expectations about the future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover the sources of individual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a panel random coefficient model, we show that financial experts have systematically misperceived the ECB's interest rate rule. However, although experts tend to overestimate the impact of inflation on future interest rates, perceptions of monetary policy have become more accurate since clarification of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in May 2003. We find that this improved communication has reduced disagreement over the ECB's response to expected inflation during the financial crisis.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aZentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) |cMannheimen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aZEW Discussion Papers |x10-045en
dc.subject.jelE47en
dc.subject.jelE52en
dc.subject.jelE58en
dc.subject.jelC23en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordCentral bank communicationen
dc.subject.keywordInterest rate forecastsen
dc.subject.keywordSurvey expectationsen
dc.subject.keywordPanel random coefficient modelen
dc.subject.stwZinspolitiken
dc.subject.stwInflationserwartungen
dc.subject.stwFinanzanalystenen
dc.subject.stwZentralbanken
dc.subject.stwStaatliche Informationen
dc.subject.stwEuropäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunionen
dc.subject.stwTaylor-Regelen
dc.subject.stwPanelen
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen
dc.subject.stwEurozoneen
dc.titleWhy do financial market experts misperceive future monetary policy decisions?-
dc.type|aWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn632110457en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:zewdip:10045en

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