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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/36717
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| Title: | | The forward premium puzzle and latent factors day by day  |
| Authors: | | Bernoth, Kerstin von Hagen, Jürgen de Vries, Casper G. |
| Issue Date: | | 2010 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Discussion papers // German Institute for Economic Research 989 |
| Abstract: | | We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coefficient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to control for the influence of an unobserved factor that can be decomposed into a contract-specific and a time- to-maturity effect. Once we do this, we find that the coefficients on the forward premium are much closer to one. The latent factor is shown to be related to conventional proxies of risk. |
| Subjects: | | Forward premium puzzle futures rates latent factor |
| JEL: | | F31 F37 G13 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW DIW-Diskussionspapiere
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