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dc.contributor.authorMacunovich, Diane J.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-11-24en_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-07-07T12:08:17Z-
dc.date.available2010-07-07T12:08:17Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.identifier.piurn:nbn:de:101:1-200910141155en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/36364-
dc.description.abstractThere are significant effects of changing demographics on economic indicators: growth in GDP especially, but also the current account balance and gross capital formation. The 15-24 age group appears to be one of the key age groups in these effects, with increases in that age group exerting strong positive effects on GDP growth, and negative effects on the CAB and GCF. There have been major shifts in the share of the population aged 15-24 during the past half century or more, many of which correspond closely to periods of institutional turmoil. The hypothesis presented in this paper is that increases in the share of the 15-24 age group lead producers to ratchet up their production expectations and take out loans to expand production capacity; but then reductions in that share - or even declining rates of increase - confound these expectations and precipitate a downward spiral of missed loan payments and even defaults and bankruptcies, putting pressure on central banks and causing foreign investors to withdraw funds and speculators to unload the local currency. This appears to have been the pattern not only during the 1996-98 crisis with the Asian Tigers, but also during the Tequila crisis of the early 1990s, the crises that occurred in the early 1980s among developed as well as developing nations, and the economic problems Japan has experienced since about 1990. The effect appears to be even more pronounced for the current 2008-2009 period.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherForschungsinst. zur Zukunft der Arbeit Bonnen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesIZA Discussion Papers 4436en_US
dc.subject.jelJ1en_US
dc.subject.jelE3en_US
dc.subject.jelF3en_US
dc.subject.jelF4en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordAge structureen_US
dc.subject.keywordcurrency crisisen_US
dc.subject.keyworddemographic changeen_US
dc.subject.keywordfinancial crisisen_US
dc.subject.stwAltersstruktur der Bevölkerungen_US
dc.subject.stwBevölkerungsentwicklungen_US
dc.subject.stwBevölkerungsökonomieen_US
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftswachstumen_US
dc.subject.stwLeistungsbilanzen_US
dc.subject.stwInvestitionen_US
dc.subject.stwSparenen_US
dc.subject.stwSchuldenen_US
dc.subject.stwBankenkriseen_US
dc.subject.stwFinanzmarktkriseen_US
dc.subject.stwWelten_US
dc.subject.stwSchwellenländeren_US
dc.titleThe role of demographics in precipitating crises in financial institutionsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn613449606en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
Appears in Collections:IZA Discussion Papers, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA)

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