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Title:Do output contractions trigger democratic change? PDF Logo
Authors:Burke, Paul J.
Leigh, Andrew
Issue Date:2010
Series/Report no.:IZA Discussion Papers 4808
Abstract:Does faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963-2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country's rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the short-run likelihood of institutional change toward democracy. Output contractions due to adverse weather shocks appear to have a particularly important impact on the timing of democratic change.
Subjects:Economic growth
democratization
weather
commodity prices
JEL:D72
N40
O17
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:IZA Discussion Papers, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA)

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