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dc.contributor.authorKose, M. Ayhanen_US
dc.contributor.authorOtrok, Christopher M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorPrasad, Eswaren_US
dc.date.accessioned2008-09-17en_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-07-07T11:33:53Z-
dc.date.available2010-07-07T11:33:53Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_US
dc.identifier.piurn:nbn:de:101:1-2008041613en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/35124-
dc.description.abstractThis paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups - industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates - output, consumption, and investment - into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.en_US
dc.language.isogeren_US
dc.publisherIZA Bonnen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesIZA Discussion Papers 3442en_US
dc.subject.jelC11en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordGlobalizationen_US
dc.subject.keywordbusiness cyclesen_US
dc.subject.keywordmacroeconomic fluctuationsen_US
dc.subject.keywordconvergenceen_US
dc.subject.keyworddecouplingen_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturen_US
dc.subject.stwGlobalisierungen_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturzusammenhangen_US
dc.subject.stwEntwicklungskonvergenzen_US
dc.subject.stwIndustriestaatenen_US
dc.subject.stwSchwellenländeren_US
dc.subject.stwWelten_US
dc.titleGlobal business cycles: convergence or decoupling?en_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn565548964en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
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