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Title:Enlarging the EMU to the east: what effects on trade? PDF Logo
Authors:Belke, Ansgar
Spies, Julia
Issue Date:2008
Series/Report no.:IZA Discussion Papers 3647
Abstract:The purpose of this paper is to assess the implications of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) accession of eight Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) on their share in EMU-12 imports. Overcoming biases related to endogeneity, omitted variables and sample selection, our results indicate that the common currency has boosted intra-EMU imports by 7%. Under the assumption that the same relationship between the explanatory variables and imports will hold for EMU-CEEC trade, we are able to predict the future impact of the Euro. Our findings suggest that except for the least integrated countries, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, all CEECs can expect increases in the EMU-12 import share.
Subjects:Central and Eastern European countries
Euro area enlargement
gravity model
panel estimation
JEL:F15
Persistent Identifier of the first edition:urn:nbn:de:101:1-20080825245
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:IZA Discussion Papers, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA)

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