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Title:Macroeconomic derivatives: an initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty and risk PDF Logo
Authors:Gürkaynak, Refet S.
Wolfers, Justin
Issue Date:2005
Series/Report no.:IZA Discussion Papers 1899
Abstract:In September 2002, a new market in Economic Derivatives was launched allowing traders to take positions on future values of several macroeconomic data releases. We provide an initial analysis of the prices of these options. We find that market-based measures of expectations are similar to survey-based forecasts although the market-based measures somewhat more accurately predict financial market responses to surprises in data. These markets also provide implied probabilities of the full range of specific outcomes, allowing us to measure uncertainty, assess its driving forces, and compare this measure of uncertainty with the dispersion of point-estimates among individual forecasters (a measure of disagreement). We also assess the accuracy of market-generated probability density forecasts. A consistent theme is that few of the behavioral anomalies present in surveys of professional forecasts survive in equilibrium, and that these markets are remarkably well calibrated. Finally we assess the role of risk, finding little evidence that risk-aversion drives a wedge between market prices and probabilities in this market.
Subjects:economic derivatives
macroeconomic forecasting
uncertainty
disagreement
prediction markets
density forecasting
JEL:C23
D21
J50
L13
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:IZA Discussion Papers, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA)

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