EconStor >
Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA), Bonn >
IZA Discussion Papers, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA) >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/33589
  
Title:Did political constraints bind during transition? Evidence from Czech elections 1990 - 2002 PDF Logo
Authors:Doyle, Orla
Walsh, Patrick Paul
Issue Date:2005
Series/Report no.:IZA Discussion Papers 1719
Abstract:Many theoretical models of transition are driven by the assumption that economic decision making is subject to political constraints. In this paper we empirically test whether the winners and losers of economic reform determined voting behaviour in the first five national elections in the Czech Republic. We propose that voters, taking stock of endowments from the planning era, could predict whether they would become winners or losers of transition. Using survey data we measure the percentage of individuals by region who were afraid and not afraid of economic reform in 1990. We define the former as potential winners who should vote for pro-reform parties, while latter are potential losers who should support left-wing parties. Using national election results and regional economic indicators, we demonstrate that there is persistence in support for pro-reform and communist parties driven by prospective voting based on initial conditions in 1990. As a result, we show that regional unemployment rates in 2002 are good predictors of regional voting patterns in 1990.
Subjects:political constraints
prospective economic voting
initial conditions
JEL:D72
E24
E61
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:IZA Discussion Papers, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA)

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
498937194.pdf183.31 kBAdobe PDF
No. of Downloads: Counter Stats
Download bibliographical data as: BibTeX
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/33589

Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.