Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/33137 
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dc.contributor.authorLeigh, Andrewen
dc.contributor.authorWolfers, Justinen
dc.date.accessioned2006-06-26-
dc.date.accessioned2010-07-07T09:07:08Z-
dc.date.available2010-07-07T09:07:08Z-
dc.date.issued2006-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/33137-
dc.description.abstractWe review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This election is particularly interesting both because of innovations in each forecasting technology, and also because the increased majority achieved by the Coalition surprised most pundits. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly important role for these models. The performance of polls was quite uneven, and predictions both across pollsters, and through time, vary too much to be particularly useful. Betting markets provide an interesting contrast, and a slew of data from various betting agencies suggests a more reasonable degree of volatility, and useful forecasting performance both throughout the election cycle and across individual electorates.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aInstitute for the Study of Labor (IZA) |cBonnen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aIZA Discussion Papers |x1972en
dc.subject.jelD72en
dc.subject.jelD84en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordvotingen
dc.subject.keywordelectionsen
dc.subject.keywordprediction marketsen
dc.subject.keywordopinion pollingen
dc.subject.keywordmacroeconomic votingen
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftsprognoseen
dc.subject.stwMeinungsforschungen
dc.subject.stwÖffentliche Meinungen
dc.subject.stwGlücksspielen
dc.subject.stwWahlen
dc.subject.stwAustralienen
dc.titleCompeting approaches to forecasting elections: economic models, opinion polling and prediction markets-
dc.type|aWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn51371930Xen
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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