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dc.contributor.authorLeigh, Andrewen_US
dc.contributor.authorWolfers, Justinen_US
dc.date.accessioned2006-06-26en_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-07-07T09:07:08Z-
dc.date.available2010-07-07T09:07:08Z-
dc.date.issued2006en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/33137-
dc.description.abstractWe review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This election is particularly interesting both because of innovations in each forecasting technology, and also because the increased majority achieved by the Coalition surprised most pundits. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly important role for these models. The performance of polls was quite uneven, and predictions both across pollsters, and through time, vary too much to be particularly useful. Betting markets provide an interesting contrast, and a slew of data from various betting agencies suggests a more reasonable degree of volatility, and useful forecasting performance both throughout the election cycle and across individual electorates.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherIZA Bonnen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesIZA Discussion Papers 1972en_US
dc.subject.jelD72en_US
dc.subject.jelD84en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordvotingen_US
dc.subject.keywordelectionsen_US
dc.subject.keywordprediction marketsen_US
dc.subject.keywordopinion pollingen_US
dc.subject.keywordmacroeconomic votingen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftsprognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwMeinungsforschungen_US
dc.subject.stwÖffentliche Meinungen_US
dc.subject.stwGlücksspielen_US
dc.subject.stwWahlen_US
dc.subject.stwAustralienen_US
dc.titleCompeting approaches to forecasting elections: economic models, opinion polling and prediction marketsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn51371930Xen_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
Appears in Collections:IZA Discussion Papers, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA)

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