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Title:Climate change impacts on global agriculture PDF Logo
Authors:Calzadilla, Alvaro
Rehdanz, Katrin
Betts, Richard
Falloon, Pete
Wiltshire, Andy
Tol, Richard S. J.
Issue Date:2010
Series/Report no.:Kiel working paper 1617
Abstract:Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity lead to different outcomes. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. Independently of the SRES scenario, expected losses in welfare are marked in the long term. They are larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that countries are not only influenced by regional climate change, but also by climate-induced changes in competitiveness.
Subjects:Computable General Equilibrium
Climate Change
Agriculture
Water Resources
JEL:D58
Q54
Q17
Q25
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des IfW
Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW

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