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Title:National economic policy simulations with global interdependencies: a sensitivity analysis for Germany PDF Logo
Authors:Meyer, Bernd
Lutz, Christian
Schnur, Peter
Zika, Gerd
Issue Date:2006
Series/Report no.:IAB discussion paper 2006,12
Abstract:Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models in general are done using a stand alone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feed back to the export values and import prices of the particular country. The paper at hand presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a stand alone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germany's export values and import prices. The results are striking: The effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the stand alone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger.
Subjects:Wirtschaftspolitik
Globalisierung - Auswirkungen
Export
Preisniveau
Importquote
Exportquote
Welthandel
Ökonometrie - Modell
Bruttoinlandsprodukt
volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung
Außenhandelspolitik
Außenhandelsentwicklung
JEL:C51
E17
E27
E37
F17
F47
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:IAB-Discussion Paper, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB)

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