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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/31931
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| Title: | | National economic policy simulations with global interdependencies: a sensitivity analysis for Germany  |
| Authors: | | Meyer, Bernd Lutz, Christian Schnur, Peter Zika, Gerd |
| Issue Date: | | 2006 |
| Series/Report no.: | | IAB discussion paper 2006,12 |
| Abstract: | | Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models in general are done using a stand alone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feed back to the export values and import prices of the particular country. The paper at hand presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a stand alone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germany's export values and import prices. The results are striking: The effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the stand alone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger. |
| Subjects: | | Wirtschaftspolitik Globalisierung - Auswirkungen Export Preisniveau Importquote Exportquote Welthandel Ökonometrie - Modell Bruttoinlandsprodukt volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung Außenhandelspolitik Außenhandelsentwicklung |
| JEL: | | C51 E17 E27 E37 F17 F47 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | IAB-Discussion Paper
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