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dc.contributor.authorDekel, Eddieen_US
dc.contributor.authorFeinberg, Yossien_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-05-14T10:18:58Z-
dc.date.available2010-05-14T10:18:58Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/31221-
dc.description.abstractWe suggest a test for discovering whether a potential expert is informed of the distribution of a stochastic process. In a non-Bayesian non-parametric setting, the expert is asked to make a prediction which is tested against a single realization of the stochastic process. It is shown that by asking the expert to predict a small” set of sequences, the test will assure that any informed expert can pass the test with probability one with respect to the actual distribution. Moreover, for the uninformed non-expert it is impossible to pass this test, in the sense that or any choice of a small” set of sequences, only a small” set of measures will assign a positive probability to the given set. Hence for most” measures, the non-expert will surely fail the test. We define small as category 1 sets, described in more detail in the paper.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherNorthwestern Univ., Kellogg Graduate School of Management, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science Evanstonen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDiscussion paper // Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science 1385en_US
dc.subject.jelD83en_US
dc.subject.jelC14en_US
dc.subject.jelC50en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.stwAsymmetrische Informationen_US
dc.subject.stwInformationsverhaltenen_US
dc.subject.stwSachverständigeen_US
dc.subject.stwInformationsökonomiken_US
dc.titleA true expert knows which question should be asked.en_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn586097686en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
Appears in Collections:Discussion Papers, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University

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