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Discussion Papers, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University >
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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/31221
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| Title: | | A true expert knows which question should be asked.  |
| Authors: | | Dekel, Eddie Feinberg, Yossi |
| Issue Date: | | 2004 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Discussion paper // Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science 1385 |
| Abstract: | | We suggest a test for discovering whether a potential expert is informed of the distribution of a stochastic process. In a non-Bayesian non-parametric setting, the expert is asked to make a prediction which is tested against a single realization of the stochastic process. It is shown that by asking the expert to predict a small set of sequences, the test will assure that any informed expert can pass the test with probability one with respect to the actual distribution. Moreover, for the uninformed non-expert it is impossible to pass this test, in the sense that or any choice of a small set of sequences, only a small set of measures will assign a positive probability to the given set. Hence for most measures, the non-expert will surely fail the test. We define small as category 1 sets, described in more detail in the paper. |
| JEL: | | D83 C14 C50 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Discussion Papers, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University
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