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dc.contributor.authorKirchgässner, Gebharden_US
dc.contributor.authorWolters, Jürgenen_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-03-02en_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-05-14T08:26:34Z-
dc.date.available2010-05-14T08:26:34Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/30731-
dc.description.abstractUsing Swiss data from 1983 to 2008, this paper investigates whether growth rates of the different measures of the quantity of money and or excess money can be used to forecast inflation. After a preliminary data analysis, money demand relations are specified, estimated and tested. Then, employing error correction models, measures of excess money are derived. Using recursive estimates, indicator properties of monetary aggregates for inflation are assessed for the period from 2000 onwards, with time horizons of one, two, and three years. In these calculations, M2 and M3 clearly outperform M1, and excess money is generally a better predictor than the quantity of money. Taking into account also the most (available) recent observations that represent the first three quarters of the economic crisis, the money demand function of M3 remains stable while the one for M2 is strongly influenced by these three observations. While in both cases forecasts for 2010 show inflation rates inside the target zone between zero and two percent, and the same holds for forecasts based on M3 for 2011, forecasts based on M2 provide evidence that the upper limit of this zone might be violated in 2011.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherCESifo Münchenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCESifo working paper 2928en_US
dc.subject.jelE41en_US
dc.subject.jelE52en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordstability of money demanden_US
dc.subject.keywordmonetary aggregates and inflationen_US
dc.subject.stwInflationsrateen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwMonetäres Aggregaten_US
dc.subject.stwGeldmengeen_US
dc.subject.stwGeldnachfrageen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwSchweizen_US
dc.titleThe role of monetary aggregates in the policy analysis of the Swiss National Banken_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn620071257en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
Appears in Collections:CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich

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