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dc.contributor.authorEsfahani, Hadi Salehien_US
dc.contributor.authorMohaddes, Kamiaren_US
dc.contributor.authorPesaran, Mohammad Hashemen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-11-17en_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-05-14T08:24:05Z-
dc.date.available2010-05-14T08:24:05Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/30690-
dc.description.abstractThis paper develops a long run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the Dutch disease and the resource curse, which primarily focus on short run implications of a temporary resource discovery. Under certain regularity conditions and assuming a Cobb Douglas production function, it is shown that (log) oil exports enter the long run output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital. The long run theory is tested using a new quarterly data set on the Iranian economy over the period 1979Q1-2006Q4. Building an error correction specification in real output, real money balances, inflation, real exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, the paper finds clear evidence for two long run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy for the (missing) market interest rate. Real output in the long run is shaped by oil exports through their impact on capital accumulation, and the foreign output as the main channel of technological transfer. The results also show a significant negative long run association between inflation and real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies. Once the effects of oil exports are taken into account, the estimates support output growth convergence between Iran and the rest of the world. We also find that the Iranian economy adjusts quite quickly to the shocks in foreign output and oil exports, which could be partly due to the relatively underdeveloped nature of Iran’s financial markets.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherCESifo Münchenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCESifo working paper 2843en_US
dc.subject.jelC32en_US
dc.subject.jelC53en_US
dc.subject.jelE17en_US
dc.subject.jelF43en_US
dc.subject.jelF47en_US
dc.subject.jelQ32en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordgrowth modelsen_US
dc.subject.keywordlong run relationsen_US
dc.subject.keywordIranian economyen_US
dc.subject.keywordoil price and foreign output shocksen_US
dc.subject.keyworderror correcting relationsen_US
dc.subject.stwMineralölwirtschaften_US
dc.subject.stwErdölen_US
dc.subject.stwExporten_US
dc.subject.stwEinnahmenen_US
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftswachstumen_US
dc.subject.stwMineralölpreisschocken_US
dc.subject.stwMakroökonomischer Einflussen_US
dc.subject.stwDutch Diseaseen_US
dc.subject.stwIranen_US
dc.titleOil exports and the Iranian economyen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn612935043en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
Appears in Collections:CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich

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