Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/30690 
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dc.contributor.authorEsfahani, Hadi Salehien
dc.contributor.authorMohaddes, Kamiaren
dc.contributor.authorPesaran, Mohammad Hashemen
dc.date.accessioned2009-11-17-
dc.date.accessioned2010-05-14T08:24:05Z-
dc.date.available2010-05-14T08:24:05Z-
dc.date.issued2009-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/30690-
dc.description.abstractThis paper develops a long run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the Dutch disease and the resource curse, which primarily focus on short run implications of a temporary resource discovery. Under certain regularity conditions and assuming a Cobb Douglas production function, it is shown that (log) oil exports enter the long run output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital. The long run theory is tested using a new quarterly data set on the Iranian economy over the period 1979Q1-2006Q4. Building an error correction specification in real output, real money balances, inflation, real exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, the paper finds clear evidence for two long run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy for the (missing) market interest rate. Real output in the long run is shaped by oil exports through their impact on capital accumulation, and the foreign output as the main channel of technological transfer. The results also show a significant negative long run association between inflation and real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies. Once the effects of oil exports are taken into account, the estimates support output growth convergence between Iran and the rest of the world. We also find that the Iranian economy adjusts quite quickly to the shocks in foreign output and oil exports, which could be partly due to the relatively underdeveloped nature of Iran’s financial markets.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aCenter for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo) |cMunichen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aCESifo Working Paper |x2843en
dc.subject.jelC32en
dc.subject.jelC53en
dc.subject.jelE17en
dc.subject.jelF43en
dc.subject.jelF47en
dc.subject.jelQ32en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordgrowth modelsen
dc.subject.keywordlong run relationsen
dc.subject.keywordIranian economyen
dc.subject.keywordoil price and foreign output shocksen
dc.subject.keyworderror correcting relationsen
dc.subject.stwMineralölwirtschaften
dc.subject.stwErdölen
dc.subject.stwExporten
dc.subject.stwEinnahmenen
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftswachstumen
dc.subject.stwMineralölpreisschocken
dc.subject.stwMakroökonomischer Einflussen
dc.subject.stwDutch Diseaseen
dc.subject.stwIranen
dc.titleOil exports and the Iranian economy-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn612935043en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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