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dc.contributor.authorHarding, Torfinnen_US
dc.contributor.authorvan der Ploeg, Fredericken_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-11-16en_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-05-14T08:19:46Z-
dc.date.available2010-05-14T08:19:46Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/30452-
dc.description.abstractWe estimate fiscal reaction functions for non-hydrocarbon tax and public spending shares of national income and for debt management strategies adopted by Norway and compare these with rules that would prevail under the permanent income hypothesis and bird-in-hand rule. We conclude that the fiscal reaction functions adopted by Norway have to some extent been forward-looking when it comes to the rising pension bill, but backward-looking when it comes to hydrocarbon revenues. Still, our results suggest that the imminent costs of a rapidly graying population are not sufficiently taken into account in the current fiscal rules, since Norway is on a trajectory of turning a current net asset-GDP-ratio close to one into a net debt-GDP-ratio of two in 2060. Something needs to give in the holy trinity: either the rules of the Stabilization fund have to be tightened, or civil servant salaries, benefits and pensions will no longer have to be fully indexed to market wages, or the retirement age has to be increased.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherCESifo Münchenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCESifo working paper 2830en_US
dc.subject.jelH20en_US
dc.subject.jelH63en_US
dc.subject.jelQ33en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordpermanent income hypothesisen_US
dc.subject.keywordoil windfallen_US
dc.subject.keywordsovereign wealth funden_US
dc.subject.keywordgraying populationen_US
dc.subject.keywordpension billen_US
dc.subject.keywordunsustainable public financesen_US
dc.subject.stwMineralölwirtschaften_US
dc.subject.stwÖffentliche Einnahmenen_US
dc.subject.stwStaatsfondsen_US
dc.subject.stwFinanzpolitiken_US
dc.subject.stwAlternde Bevölkerungen_US
dc.subject.stwReaktionsfunktionen_US
dc.subject.stwRentenfinanzierungen_US
dc.subject.stwDebt Managementen_US
dc.subject.stwEinkommenshypotheseen_US
dc.subject.stwNorwegenen_US
dc.titleIs Norway's bird-in-hand stabilization fund prudent enough? : fiscal reactions to hydrocarbon windfalls and graying populationsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn612885380en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
Appears in Collections:CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich

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