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Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg >
MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics, Universität Marburg >
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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/30092
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| Title: | | The Fed's perceived Phillips curve: vidence from individual FOMC forecasts  |
| Authors: | | Tillmann, Peter |
| Issue Date: | | 2009 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Joint discussion paper series in economics 2009,46 |
| Abstract: | | This note uncovers the Phillips curve trade-off perceived by U.S. monetary policymakers. For that purpose we use data on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made available for the period 1992-1998. The results point to significant changes in the perceived trade-off over time with the Phillips curve flattening and the implied NAIRU falling towards the second half of the sample. Hence, the results suggest that policymakers were aware of these changes in real-time. |
| Subjects: | | inflation forecast NAIRU Phillips curve monetary policy Federal Reserve |
| JEL: | | E43 E52 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics, Universität Marburg
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