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Title:The Fed's perceived Phillips curve: vidence from individual FOMC forecasts PDF Logo
Authors:Tillmann, Peter
Issue Date:2009
Series/Report no.:Joint discussion paper series in economics 2009,46
Abstract:This note uncovers the Phillips curve trade-off perceived by U.S. monetary policymakers. For that purpose we use data on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made available for the period 1992-1998. The results point to significant changes in the perceived trade-off over time with the Phillips curve flattening and the implied NAIRU falling towards the second half of the sample. Hence, the results suggest that policymakers were aware of these changes in real-time.
Subjects:inflation forecast
NAIRU
Phillips curve
monetary policy
Federal Reserve
JEL:E43
E52
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics, Universität Marburg

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