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dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Torstenen
dc.contributor.authorVosen, Simeonen
dc.date.accessioned2009-12-02-
dc.date.accessioned2010-02-12T15:03:05Z-
dc.date.available2010-02-12T15:03:05Z-
dc.date.issued2009-
dc.identifier.isbn978-3-86788-175-3en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/29900-
dc.description.abstractIn this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on factors extracted from consumption-related search categories of the Google Trends application Insights for Search. The forecasting performance of the new indicator is assessed relative to the two most common survey-based indicators - the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. The results show that in almost all conducted in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting experiments the Google indicator outperforms the survey-based indicators. This suggests that incorporating information from Google Trends may offer significant benefits to forecasters of private consumption.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aRheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) |cEssenen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aRuhr Economic Papers |x155en
dc.subject.jelC53en
dc.subject.jelE21en
dc.subject.jelE27en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordGoogle Trendsen
dc.subject.keywordprivate consumptionen
dc.subject.keywordforecastingen
dc.subject.keywordConsumer Sentiment Indicatoren
dc.subject.stwGesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsumen
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen
dc.subject.stwKonsumklimaen
dc.subject.stwInternet-Portalen
dc.subject.stwSuchmaschineen
dc.subject.stwVergleichen
dc.subject.stwUSAen
dc.titleForecasting Private Consumption: Survey-based Indicators vs. Google Trends-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn614061253en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:rwirep:155en

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