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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), Essen >
Ruhr Economic Papers, RWI >
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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/29900
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| Title: | | Forecasting private consumption: survey-based indicators vs. Google trends  |
| Authors: | | Schmidt, Torsten Vosen, Simeon |
| Issue Date: | | 2009 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Ruhr economic papers 155 |
| Abstract: | | In this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on factors extracted from consumption-related search categories of the Google Trends application Insights for Search. The forecasting performance of the new indicator is assessed relative to the two most common survey-based indicators - the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. The results show that in almost all conducted in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting experiments the Google indicator outperforms the survey-based indicators. This suggests that incorporating information from Google Trends may offer significant benefits to forecasters of private consumption. |
| Subjects: | | Google Trends private consumption forecasting Consumer Sentiment Indicator |
| JEL: | | C53 E21 : E27 |
| ISBN: | | 978-3-86788-175-3 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des RWI Ruhr Economic Papers, RWI
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