Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/29900
Authors: 
Schmidt, Torsten
Vosen, Simeon
Year of Publication: 
2009
Series/Report no.: 
Ruhr economic papers 155
Abstract: 
In this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on factors extracted from consumption-related search categories of the Google Trends application Insights for Search. The forecasting performance of the new indicator is assessed relative to the two most common survey-based indicators - the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. The results show that in almost all conducted in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting experiments the Google indicator outperforms the survey-based indicators. This suggests that incorporating information from Google Trends may offer significant benefits to forecasters of private consumption.
Subjects: 
Google Trends
private consumption
forecasting
Consumer Sentiment Indicator
JEL: 
C53
E21
E27
ISBN: 
978-3-86788-175-3
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
233.98 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.