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dc.contributor.authorKholodilin, Konstantin Arkadievichen_US
dc.contributor.authorPodstawski, Maximilianen_US
dc.contributor.authorSiliverstovs, Borissen_US
dc.contributor.authorBürgi, Constantinen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-11-16en_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-02-04T13:06:47Z-
dc.date.available2010-02-04T13:06:47Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/29807-
dc.description.abstractThe Google Insights data are a collection of recorded Internet searches for a huge number of the keywords, which are available since January 2004. These searches represent a kind of revealed perceptions of Internet users, which are a (possibly not entirely representative) sample of the general public. These data can be used to improve the short-term forecasts or nowcasts of various macroeconomic variables. In this paper, we compare the nowcasts of the growth rates of the real US private consumption based on both the conventional consumer confidence indicators and the Google indicators. The latter are extracted from the Google searches using the principal component analysis. It is shown that the Google indicators are especially successful at predicting private consumption in times of economic trouble, for they are 20% more accurate than the best alternative during the 2008m1-2009m5 forecast period. In addition, Google indicators are available at weekly frequency and not subject to revisions. This makes them an excellent source of information for the macroeconomic forecasting.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherDeutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Berlinen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDiscussion papers // German Institute for Economic Research 946en_US
dc.subject.jelC22en_US
dc.subject.jelC53en_US
dc.subject.jelC82en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordGoogle indicatorsen_US
dc.subject.keywordforecastingen_US
dc.subject.keywordprincipal componentsen_US
dc.subject.keywordUS private consumptionen_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturprognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwKonsumklimaen_US
dc.subject.stwInterneten_US
dc.subject.stwSuchmaschineen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwHauptkomponentenanalyseen_US
dc.subject.stwTheorieen_US
dc.subject.stwUSAen_US
dc.titleGoogle searches as a means of improving the nowcasts of key macroeconomic variablesen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn61287768Xen_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
Appears in Collections:Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW
DIW-Diskussionspapiere

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