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Title:Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price PDF Logo
Authors:Reitz, Stefan
Rülke, Jan-Christoph
Stadtmann, Georg
Issue Date:2009
Series/Report no.:Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,32
Abstract:We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random walk benchmark. However, this result appears to be biased due to peso problems.
Subjects:Oil price
survey data
forecast bias
peso problem
JEL:F31
D84
C33
ISBN:978-3-86558-584-4
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank

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