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https://hdl.handle.net/10419/28356
Kompletter Metadatensatz
DublinCore-Feld | Wert | Sprache |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Golosnoy, Vasyl | en |
dc.contributor.author | Hogrefe, Jens | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2009-06-30 | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2009-10-18T16:26:59Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2009-10-18T16:26:59Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2009 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/28356 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The dates of U.S. business cycle are reported by NBER with a considerable delay, so an early notion of turning points is of particular interest. This paper proposes a novel sequential approach designed for timely signaling these turning points. A directional cumulated sum decision rule is adapted for the purpose of on-line monitoring of transitions between subsequent phases of economic activity. The introduced procedure shows a sound detection ability for business cycle peaks and troughs compared to the established dynamic factor Markov switching methodology. It exhibits a range of theoretical optimality properties for early signaling, moreover, it is transparent and easy to implement. | en |
dc.language.iso | eng | en |
dc.publisher | |aKiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) |cKiel | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | |aKiel Working Paper |x1528 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C44 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C50 | en |
dc.subject.jel | E32 | en |
dc.subject.ddc | 330 | en |
dc.subject.keyword | Business cycle | en |
dc.subject.keyword | CUSUM control chart | en |
dc.subject.keyword | Dynamic Factor Markov switching models | en |
dc.subject.keyword | Early signaling | en |
dc.subject.keyword | NBER dating | en |
dc.subject.stw | Konjunktureller Wendepunkt | en |
dc.subject.stw | Konjunkturprognose | en |
dc.subject.stw | Prognoseverfahren | en |
dc.subject.stw | Sequentialanalyse | en |
dc.subject.stw | Statistische Qualitätskontrolle | en |
dc.subject.stw | USA | en |
dc.title | Sequential methodology for signaling business cycle turning points | - |
dc.type | Working Paper | en |
dc.identifier.ppn | 603369723 | en |
dc.rights | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | en |
dc.identifier.repec | RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1528 | en |
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