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dc.contributor.authorGolosnoy, Vasylen_US
dc.contributor.authorHogrefe, Jensen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-06-30en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-10-18T16:26:59Z-
dc.date.available2009-10-18T16:26:59Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/28356-
dc.description.abstractThe dates of U.S. business cycle are reported by NBER with a considerable delay, so an early notion of turning points is of particular interest. This paper proposes a novel sequential approach designed for timely signaling these turning points. A directional cumulated sum decision rule is adapted for the purpose of on-line monitoring of transitions between subsequent phases of economic activity. The introduced procedure shows a sound detection ability for business cycle peaks and troughs compared to the established dynamic factor Markov switching methodology. It exhibits a range of theoretical optimality properties for early signaling, moreover, it is transparent and easy to implement.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherKiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Kielen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesKiel working paper 1528en_US
dc.subject.jelC44en_US
dc.subject.jelC50en_US
dc.subject.jelE32en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordBusiness cycleen_US
dc.subject.keywordCUSUM control charten_US
dc.subject.keywordDynamic Factor Markov switching modelsen_US
dc.subject.keywordEarly signalingen_US
dc.subject.keywordNBER datingen_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunktureller Wendepunkten_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturprognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwSequentialanalyseen_US
dc.subject.stwStatistische Qualitätskontrolleen_US
dc.subject.stwUSAen_US
dc.titleSequential methodology for signaling business cycle turning pointsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn603369723en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
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Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW

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