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Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW), Kiel >
Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/28356
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Full metadata record
| DC Field | | Value | | Language |
| dc.contributor.author | | Golosnoy, Vasyl | | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | | Hogrefe, Jens | | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | | 2009-06-30 | | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | | 2009-10-18T16:26:59Z | | - |
| dc.date.available | | 2009-10-18T16:26:59Z | | - |
| dc.date.issued | | 2009 | | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/28356 | | - |
| dc.description.abstract | | The dates of U.S. business cycle are reported by NBER with a considerable delay, so an early notion of turning points is of particular interest. This paper proposes a novel sequential approach designed for timely signaling these turning points. A directional cumulated sum decision rule is adapted for the purpose of on-line monitoring of transitions between subsequent phases of economic activity. The introduced procedure shows a sound detection ability for business cycle peaks and troughs compared to the established dynamic factor Markov switching methodology. It exhibits a range of theoretical optimality properties for early signaling, moreover, it is transparent and easy to implement. | | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | | eng | | en_US |
| dc.publisher | | Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Kiel | | en_US |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | | Kiel working paper 1528 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | C44 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | C50 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | E32 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.ddc | | 330 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | Business cycle | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | CUSUM control chart | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | Dynamic Factor Markov switching models | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | Early signaling | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | NBER dating | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Konjunktureller Wendepunkt | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Konjunkturprognose | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Prognoseverfahren | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Sequentialanalyse | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Statistische Qualitätskontrolle | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | USA | | en_US |
| dc.title | | Sequential methodology for signaling business cycle turning points | | en_US |
| dc.type | | Working Paper | | en_US |
| dc.identifier.ppn | | 603369723 | | en_US |
| dc.rights | | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | | - |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des IfW Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW
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