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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/28349
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| Title: | | The agricultural and the democratic transitions: causality and the roundup model  |
| Authors: | | Gundlach, Erich Paldam, Martin |
| Issue Date: | | 2009 |
| Citation: | | [Series:] Kiel working paper [No.:] 1521 [Editor:] Kiel Inst. for the World Economy, Kiel |
| Series/Report no.: | | Kiel working paper 1521 |
| Abstract: | | Long-run development (in income) causes a large fall in the share of agriculture commonly known as the agricultural transition. We confirm that this conventional wisdom is strongly supported by the data. Long-run development (in income) also causes a large increase in democracy known as the democratic transition. Elsewhere we have shown that it is almost as strong as the agricultural transition. Recently, a method has been presented to weed out spuriousness. It makes the democratic transition go away by turning income insignificant, when it is supplemented by a set of formal controls. We show that the same method makes the agricultural transition go away as well. Hence, it seems to be a method that kills far too much, as suggested by the subtitle. This suggestion leads to a discussion of the very meaning of long-run causality. |
| Subjects: | | Long-run growth transitions causality and spuriousness |
| JEL: | | O1 P5 Q1 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des IfW Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW Economists Online
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