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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/28338
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| Title: | | National and international business cycle effects of housing crises  |
| Authors: | | Jannsen, Nils |
| Issue Date: | | 2009 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Kiel working paper 1510 |
| Abstract: | | Housing crises usually go hand in hand with a long lasting recession and a considerable loss in output. We first re-examine the effects of a housing crises on the business cycle based on historical crises. Then we estimate the international spill-over-effects if several huge industrial countries face a housing crisis simultaneously. While the economic impact of the housing crisis in the United States, from a historical perspective, should have bottomed out at the end of 2008 and the business cycle pattern differed significantly from that in a typical crisis, house prices in Great Britain, Spain and France just started to drop at the end of 2007. If we assume that a typical housing crisis occurs in all of these three countries, international transmission effects then would lead to significant losses of GDP growth in several other countries, notably in Europe. |
| Subjects: | | Housing Crisis Business Cycle International Transmission Global VAR |
| JEL: | | C50 E32 F42 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des IfW Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW
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