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Title:Does money still matter for U.S. output? PDF Logo
Authors:Berger, Helge
Österholm, Pär
Issue Date:2008
Series/Report no.:Diskussionsbeiträge des Fachbereichs Wirtschaftswissenschaft der Freien Universität Berlin 2008/7
Abstract:In this note, we use multivariate models estimated with Bayesian techniques and an out-ofsample approach to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes output growth in the United States. We find surprisingly strong evidence for a money-output link over the 1960-2005 period. However, further analysis indicates that this result is likely to be misleading; after the Great moderation, the Granger-causal role of money appears to have vanished completely.
Subjects:Bayesian VAR
out-of-sample forecasting
granger causality
federal reserve
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Diskussionsbeiträge, FB Wirtschaftswissenschaft, FU Berlin

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