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dc.contributor.authorLiesenfeld, Romanen_US
dc.contributor.authorMoura, Guilherme V.en_US
dc.contributor.authorRichard, Jean-Françoisen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-08-27en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-09-07T14:31:22Z-
dc.date.available2009-09-07T14:31:22Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/27739-
dc.description.abstractWe use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity, state-dependence and serially correlated errors in order to analyze the determinants and the dynamics of current-account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood-based inference of these models requires high-dimensional integration for which we use Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS). Our results suggest that current account balance, terms of trades, foreign reserves and concessional debt are important determinants of current-account reversal. Furthermore, we find strong evidence for serial dependence in the occurrence of reversals. While the likelihood criterion suggest that state-dependence and serially correlated errors are essentially observationally equivalent, measures of predictive performance provide support for the hypothesis that the serial dependence is mainly due to serially correlated country-specific shocks related to local political or macroeconomic events.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherUniv., Dep. of Economics Kielen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEconomics working paper / Christian-Albrechts-Universität Kiel, Department of Economics 2009,04en_US
dc.subject.jelC15en_US
dc.subject.jelC23en_US
dc.subject.jelC25en_US
dc.subject.jelF32en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordPanel dataen_US
dc.subject.keyworddynamic discrete choiceen_US
dc.subject.keywordimportance samplingen_US
dc.subject.keywordMonte Carlo integrationen_US
dc.subject.keywordstate dependenceen_US
dc.subject.keywordspillover effectsen_US
dc.subject.stwLeistungsbilanzen_US
dc.subject.stwZahlungsbilanzungleichgewichten_US
dc.subject.stwTerms of Tradeen_US
dc.subject.stwWährungsreservenen_US
dc.subject.stwAuslandsverschuldungen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwPanelen_US
dc.subject.stwEntwicklungsländeren_US
dc.subject.stwSchwellenländeren_US
dc.titleDeterminants and dynamics of current account reversals: an empirical analysisen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn60768688Xen_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:cauewp:200904-
Appears in Collections:Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics, CAU Kiel

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