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| Title: | | The Universal Shape of Economic Recession and Recovery after a Shock  |
| Authors: | | Challet, Damien Solomon, Sorin Yaari, Gur |
| Issue Date: | | 2009 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Economics Discussion Papers / Institut für Weltwirtschaft 2009-6 |
| Abstract: | | We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during the times of recession and recovery. We then argue that it can be used to detect shocks and discuss its predictive power. Finally, a two-sector theoretical model of recession and recovery illustrates how the severity and length of recession depends on the dynamics of transfer rate between the growing and failing parts of the economy. |
| Subjects: | | Economic growth transition economies GDP modelling prediction optimal policy |
| JEL: | | O23 C32 O41 |
| Creative Commons License: | |  |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal - Discussion Papers
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