Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/27380
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dc.contributor.authorKholodilin, Konstantin Arkadievichen_US
dc.contributor.authorSiliverstovs, Borissen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-02-09en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-08-06T13:20:52Z-
dc.date.available2009-08-06T13:20:52Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/27380-
dc.description.abstractThe paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naive forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisher|aDeutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) |cBerlinen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aDiscussion papers // German Institute for Economic Research|x858en_US
dc.subject.jelC53en_US
dc.subject.jelC89en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordQuality of statistical dataen_US
dc.subject.keywordreal-time dataen_US
dc.subject.keywordsignal-to-noise ratioen_US
dc.subject.keywordforecastsen_US
dc.subject.keywordrevisionsen_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturprognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwStatistischer Fehleren_US
dc.subject.stwVolkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen_US
dc.subject.stwStatistiken_US
dc.subject.stwInformationswerten_US
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden_US
dc.titleDo forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time dataen_US
dc.type|aWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn591229447en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-

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