Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/10419/27380
Full metadata record
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Kholodilin, Konstantin Arkadievich | en |
dc.contributor.author | Siliverstovs, Boriss | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2009-02-09 | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2009-08-06T13:20:52Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2009-08-06T13:20:52Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2009 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/27380 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naive forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data. | en |
dc.language.iso | eng | en |
dc.publisher | |aDeutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) |cBerlin | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | |aDIW Discussion Papers |x858 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C53 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C89 | en |
dc.subject.ddc | 330 | en |
dc.subject.keyword | Quality of statistical data | en |
dc.subject.keyword | real-time data | en |
dc.subject.keyword | signal-to-noise ratio | en |
dc.subject.keyword | forecasts | en |
dc.subject.keyword | revisions | en |
dc.subject.stw | Konjunkturprognose | en |
dc.subject.stw | Prognoseverfahren | en |
dc.subject.stw | Statistischer Fehler | en |
dc.subject.stw | Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung | en |
dc.subject.stw | Statistik | en |
dc.subject.stw | Informationswert | en |
dc.subject.stw | Deutschland | en |
dc.title | Do forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time data | - |
dc.type | |aWorking Paper | en |
dc.identifier.ppn | 591229447 | en |
dc.rights | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | en |
dc.identifier.repec | RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp858 | en |
Files in This Item:
Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.