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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/27380
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| Title: | | Do forecasters inform or reassure?: evaluation of the German real-time data  |
| Authors: | | Kholodilin, Konstantin Arkadievich Siliverstovs, Boriss |
| Issue Date: | | 2009 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Discussion papers // German Institute for Economic Research 858 |
| Abstract: | | The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naive forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data. |
| Subjects: | | Quality of statistical data real-time data signal-to-noise ratio forecasts revisions |
| JEL: | | C53 C89 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW DIW-Diskussionspapiere
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