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Title:Do forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time data PDF Logo
Authors:Kholodilin, Konstantin Arkadievich
Siliverstovs, Boriss
Issue Date:2009
Series/Report no.:Discussion papers // German Institute for Economic Research 858
Abstract:The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naive forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data.
Subjects:Quality of statistical data
real-time data
signal-to-noise ratio
forecasts
revisions
JEL:C53
C89
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:DIW-Diskussionspapiere
Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW

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