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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/27363
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| Title: | | Climate change and modelling of extreme temperatures in Switzerland  |
| Authors: | | Siliverstovs, Boriss Ötsch, Rainald Kemfert, Claudia Jaeger, Carlo Haas, Armin Kremers, Hans |
| Issue Date: | | 2008 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Discussion papers // German Institute for Economic Research 840 |
| Abstract: | | This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature. |
| Subjects: | | Climate change GEV Bayesian modelling Great Alpine Heat Wave |
| JEL: | | Q54 C11 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW DIW-Diskussionspapiere
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