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dc.contributor.authorDöhrn, Rolanden_US
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Christoph M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorZimmermann, Tobiasen_US
dc.date.accessioned2008-12-17en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-08-06T09:02:36Z-
dc.date.available2009-08-06T09:02:36Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_US
dc.identifier.isbn978-3-86788-087-9en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/26846-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared by many components of the CPI basket. In a comparative analysis of the forecasting power of the different inflation indicators for the US and Germany, we demonstrate that our inflation sentiment indicators improve forecast accuracy in comparison to a standard Phillips curve approach. Because the forecast performance is particularly good for longer horizons, we also compare our indicators to traditional measures of core inflation. Here, the sentiment indicators outperform the weighted median and show a similar forecasting power as a trimmed mean. Thus, they offer a convincing alternative to traditional core inflation measures.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherRWI Essenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesRuhr economic papers 80en_US
dc.subject.jelE30en_US
dc.subject.jelE31en_US
dc.subject.jelE37en_US
dc.subject.jelC53en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordInflation forecastingen_US
dc.subject.keywordmonetary policyen_US
dc.subject.stwInflationen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwInflationserwartungen_US
dc.subject.stwWahrnehmungen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwUSAen_US
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden_US
dc.titleInflation forecasting with inflation sentiment indicatorsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn588122084en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
Appears in Collections:Ruhr Economic Papers, RWI
Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des RWI

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