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dc.contributor.authorKrueger, Dirken_US
dc.contributor.authorLudwig, Alexanderen_US
dc.date.accessioned2006-08-08en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-07-24T13:47:58Z-
dc.date.available2009-07-24T13:47:58Z-
dc.date.issued2006en_US
dc.identifier.piurn:nbn:de:hebis:30-30952-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/25484-
dc.description.abstractThis paper employs a multi-country large scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital flows and the distribution of wealth and welfare in the OECD. We find that for the U.S. as an open economy, rates of return are predicted to decline by 86 basis points between 2005 and 2080 and wages increase by about 4.1%. If the U.S. were a closed economy, rates of return would decline and wages increase by less. This is due to the fact that other regions in the OECD will age even more rapidly; therefore the U.S. is “importing” the more severe demographic transition from the rest of the OECD in the form of larger factor price changes. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young agents with little assets and currently low labor productivity gain, up to 1% in consumption, from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to lose, because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherCenter for Financial Studies Frankfurt, Mainen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCFS Working Paper 2006/18en_US
dc.subject.jelE17en_US
dc.subject.jelE25en_US
dc.subject.jelD33en_US
dc.subject.jelC68en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordPopulation Agingen_US
dc.subject.keywordInternational Capital Flowsen_US
dc.subject.keywordDistribution of Welfareen_US
dc.subject.stwBevölkerungsentwicklungen_US
dc.subject.stwKapitalertragen_US
dc.subject.stwVermögensverteilungen_US
dc.subject.stwWohlfahrtseffekten_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwOverlapping Generationsen_US
dc.subject.stwUSAen_US
dc.subject.stwOECD-Staatenen_US
dc.titleOn the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfareen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn515354694en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:cfswop:200618-
Appears in Collections:CFS Working Paper Series, Universität Frankfurt a. M.

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