Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/25419 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2005
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CFS Working Paper No. 2005/16
Verlag: 
Goethe University Frankfurt, Center for Financial Studies (CFS), Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
Ignoring the existence of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates one considerably understates the value of monetary commitment in New Keynesian models. A stochastic forward-looking model with lower bound, calibrated to the U.S. economy, suggests that low values for the natural rate of interest lead to sizeable output losses and deflation under discretionary monetary policy. The fall in output and deflation are much larger than in the case with policy commitment and do not show up at all if the model abstracts from the existence of the lower bound. The welfare losses of discretionary policy increase even further when inflation is partly determined by lagged inflation in the Phillips curve. These results emerge because private sector expectations and the discretionary policy response to these expectations reinforce each other and cause the lower bound to be reached much earlier than under commitment.
Schlagwörter: 
Nonlinear Optimal Policy
Occasionally Binding Constraint
Sequential Policy
Markov Perfect Equilibrium
Liquidity Trap
JEL: 
E31
E52
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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