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Sonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko, Humboldt-Universität Berlin >
SFB 649 Discussion Papers, HU Berlin >
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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/25327
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| Title: | | Defending against speculative attacks  |
| Authors: | | Daniëls, Tijmen R. Jager, Henk Klaassen, Franc |
| Issue Date: | | 2009 |
| Series/Report no.: | | SFB 649 discussion paper 2009,011 |
| Abstract: | | While virtually all currency crisismodels recognise that the fate of a currency peg depends on how tenaciously policy makers defend it, they seldom model how this is done. We incorporate themechanics of speculation and the interest rate defence against it in the model ofMorris and Shin (American Economic Review 88, 1998). Our model captures that the interest rate defence reduces speculators’ profits and thus postpones the crisis. It predicts that well before the fall of a currency interest rates are increased to offset the buildup of exchange market pressure, and this then unravels in a sharp depreciation. This pattern is at odds with predictions of standard models, but we show that it fits well with reality. |
| Subjects: | | Exchange market pressure currency crisis interest rate defence global game |
| JEL: | | E58 F31 F33 G15 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | SFB 649 Discussion Papers, HU Berlin
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