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dc.contributor.authorHärdle, Wolfgang Karlen_US
dc.contributor.authorMyšičková, Alenaen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-03-19en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-07-23T15:15:18Z-
dc.date.available2009-07-23T15:15:18Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/25325-
dc.description.abstractPopulation forecasts are crucial for many social, political and economic decisions. Official population projections rely in general on deterministic models which use different scenarios for future vital rates to indicate uncertainty. However, this technique shows substantial weak points such as assuming absolute correlations between the demographic components. In this paper, we argue that a stochastic projection alternative, with no a priori assumptions provides point forecasts and probabilistic prediction intervals for demographic parameters in addition. Age-sex specific population forecast for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and migration. Time series models with demographic restrictions are used to describe immigration, emigration and time varying indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age-specific population forecast using the cohort-component method. The consequence for the German pension system is discussed. To maintain the actual average pension level the premium rate of the present system rises at least by 50% as the old-age ratio nearly doubles by 2040.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherSFB 649, Economic Risk Berlinen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesSFB 649 discussion paper 2009,009en_US
dc.subject.jelJ11en_US
dc.subject.jelJ13en_US
dc.subject.jelC53en_US
dc.subject.jelC22en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordDemographic forecastingen_US
dc.subject.keywordpopulation projectionen_US
dc.subject.keywordstochastic demographyen_US
dc.subject.stwBevölkerungsprognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwZeitreihenanalyseen_US
dc.subject.stwStochastischer Prozessen_US
dc.subject.stwTheorieen_US
dc.subject.stwAltersstruktur der Bevölkerungen_US
dc.subject.stwGesetzliche Rentenversicherungen_US
dc.subject.stwRentenfinanzierungen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwAlternde Bevölkerungen_US
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden_US
dc.titleStochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension systemen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn594005213en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
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