EconStor >
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin >
Sonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko, Humboldt-Universität Berlin >
SFB 649 Discussion Papers, HU Berlin >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/25325
  
Title:Stochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension system PDF Logo
Authors:Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
Myšičková, Alena
Issue Date:2009
Series/Report no.:SFB 649 discussion paper 2009,009
Abstract:Population forecasts are crucial for many social, political and economic decisions. Official population projections rely in general on deterministic models which use different scenarios for future vital rates to indicate uncertainty. However, this technique shows substantial weak points such as assuming absolute correlations between the demographic components. In this paper, we argue that a stochastic projection alternative, with no a priori assumptions provides point forecasts and probabilistic prediction intervals for demographic parameters in addition. Age-sex specific population forecast for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and migration. Time series models with demographic restrictions are used to describe immigration, emigration and time varying indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age-specific population forecast using the cohort-component method. The consequence for the German pension system is discussed. To maintain the actual average pension level the premium rate of the present system rises at least by 50% as the old-age ratio nearly doubles by 2040.
Subjects:Demographic forecasting
population projection
stochastic demography
JEL:J11
J13
C53
C22
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:SFB 649 Discussion Papers, HU Berlin

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
594005213.PDF1.52 MBAdobe PDF
No. of Downloads: Counter Stats
Download bibliographical data as: BibTeX
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/25325

Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.