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dc.contributor.authorReichmuth, Wolfgang H.en_US
dc.contributor.authorSarferaz, Samaden_US
dc.date.accessioned2008-11-07en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-07-23T15:15:02Z-
dc.date.available2009-07-23T15:15:02Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/25302-
dc.description.abstractWe analyze the impact of short-run economic fluctuations on age-specific mortality using Bayesian time series econometrics and contribute to the debate on the procyclicality of mortality. For the first time, we examine the differing consequences of economic changes for all individual age classes. We employ a recently developed model to set up structural VARs of a latent mortality variable and of unemployment and GDP growth as main business cycle indicators. We find that young adults noticeably differ from the rest of the population. They exhibit increased mortality in a recession, whereas most of the other age classes between childhood and old age react with lower mortality to increased unemployment or decreased GDP growth. In order to avoid that opposed effects may cancel each other, our findings suggest to differentiate closely between particular age classes, especially in the age range of young adults. The results for the U.S. in the period 1956-2004 are confirmed by an international comparison with France and Japan. Long- term changes in the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and mortality are investigated with data since 1933.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherSFB 649, Economic Risk Berlinen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesSFB 649 discussion paper 2008,059en_US
dc.subject.jelC11en_US
dc.subject.jelC32en_US
dc.subject.jelE32en_US
dc.subject.jelI10en_US
dc.subject.jelJ10en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordAge-specific mortalityen_US
dc.subject.keywordbusiness cycleen_US
dc.subject.keywordunemploymenten_US
dc.subject.keywordBayesian econometricsen_US
dc.subject.keywordhealthen_US
dc.subject.keywordepidemiologyen_US
dc.subject.stwSterblichkeiten_US
dc.subject.stwLebensalteren_US
dc.subject.stwAltersstruktur der Bevölkerungen_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturen_US
dc.subject.stwMakroökonomischer Einflussen_US
dc.subject.stwUSAen_US
dc.titleThe influence of the business cycle on mortalityen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn584573480en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
Appears in Collections:SFB 649 Discussion Papers, HU Berlin

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