Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/25302 
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dc.contributor.authorReichmuth, Wolfgang H.en
dc.contributor.authorSarferaz, Samaden
dc.date.accessioned2008-11-07-
dc.date.accessioned2009-07-23T15:15:02Z-
dc.date.available2009-07-23T15:15:02Z-
dc.date.issued2008-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/25302-
dc.description.abstractWe analyze the impact of short-run economic fluctuations on age-specific mortality using Bayesian time series econometrics and contribute to the debate on the procyclicality of mortality. For the first time, we examine the differing consequences of economic changes for all individual age classes. We employ a recently developed model to set up structural VARs of a latent mortality variable and of unemployment and GDP growth as main business cycle indicators. We find that young adults noticeably differ from the rest of the population. They exhibit increased mortality in a recession, whereas most of the other age classes between childhood and old age react with lower mortality to increased unemployment or decreased GDP growth. In order to avoid that opposed effects may cancel each other, our findings suggest to differentiate closely between particular age classes, especially in the age range of young adults. The results for the U.S. in the period 1956-2004 are confirmed by an international comparison with France and Japan. Long- term changes in the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and mortality are investigated with data since 1933.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aHumboldt University of Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649 - Economic Risk |cBerlinen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aSFB 649 Discussion Paper |x2008,059en
dc.subject.jelC11en
dc.subject.jelC32en
dc.subject.jelE32en
dc.subject.jelI10en
dc.subject.jelJ10en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordAge-specific mortalityen
dc.subject.keywordbusiness cycleen
dc.subject.keywordunemploymenten
dc.subject.keywordBayesian econometricsen
dc.subject.keywordhealthen
dc.subject.keywordepidemiologyen
dc.subject.stwSterblichkeiten
dc.subject.stwLebensalteren
dc.subject.stwAltersstruktur der Bevölkerungen
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturen
dc.subject.stwMakroökonomischer Einflussen
dc.subject.stwUSAen
dc.titleThe influence of the business cycle on mortality-
dc.type|aWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn584573480en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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