|
EconStor >
Humboldt-Universität Berlin >
Sonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko, Humboldt-Universität Berlin >
SFB 649 Discussion Papers, HU Berlin >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/25211
|
| | |
| Title: | | Tracking down the business cycle: a dynamic factor model for Germany 1820-1913  |
| Authors: | | Sarferaz, Samad Uebele, Martin |
| Issue Date: | | 2007 |
| Series/Report no.: | | SFB 649 discussion paper 2007,039 |
| Abstract: | | We use a Bayesian dynamic factor model to measure Germany's pre World War I economic activity. The procedure makes better use of existing time series data than historical national accounting. To investigate industrialization we propose to look at comovement between sectors. We find that Germany's industrial sector developed earlier than stated in the literature, since after the 1860s agricultural time series do not comove with the business cycle anymore. Also, the bulk of comovement between 1820 and 1913 can be traced back to five out of 18 series representing industrial production, investment and demand for industrial inputs. Our factor is impressingly confirmed by a stock price index, leading the factor by 1-2 years. We also find evidence for early market integration in the 1820s and 1830s. Our business cycle dating aims to resolve the debate on German business cycle history. Given the often unsatisfactory quality of national accounting data for the 19th century we show the advantage of dynamic factor models in making efficient use of rare historical time series. |
| Subjects: | | Business Cycle Chronology Imperial Germany Dynamic Factor Models Industrialization |
| JEL: | | E32 C11 C32 N13 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | SFB 649 Discussion Papers, HU Berlin
|
| Files in This Item:
| |
|
| No. of Downloads:
| |
| last Month |
last 3 Month |
total |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| | |
Download bibliographical data as:
BibTeX
|
| |
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/25211
|
Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
|