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Title:Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments PDF Logo
Authors:Hommes, Cars
Lux, Thomas
Issue Date:2008
Citation:[Series:] Kiel working paper [No.:] 1466 [Editor:] Kiel Inst. for the World Economy, Kiel
Series/Report no.:Kiel working paper 1466
Abstract:Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning to forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects (Hommes et al. 2007), simultaneously and across different treatments.
Subjects:Learning
heterogeneous expectations
genetic algorithms
experimental economics
JEL:C91
C92
D83
D84
E3
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW
Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des IfW

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