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Title:Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth PDF Logo
Authors:Kappler, Marcus
Issue Date:2007
Series/Report no.:ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068
Abstract:The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting? the production function approach?in terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth for the individual G7 countries is conducted. To carry out the forecast performance check a particular testing framework is derived that allows the computation of robust test statistics given the specific nature of the generated out-of sample forecasts. In addition, medium-term GDP projections from national and international institutions are examined and it is assessed whether these projections convey a reliable view about future economic developments and whether there is scope for improving their predictive content.
Subjects:Potential output
projections
forecast evaluation
JEL:C53
E27
E23
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:ZEW Discussion Papers
Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des ZEW

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