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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/24653
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| Title: | | Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth  |
| Authors: | | Kappler, Marcus |
| Issue Date: | | 2007 |
| Series/Report no.: | | ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068 |
| Abstract: | | The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting? the production function approach?in terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth for the individual G7 countries is conducted. To carry out the forecast performance check a particular testing framework is derived that allows the computation of robust test statistics given the specific nature of the generated out-of sample forecasts. In addition, medium-term GDP projections from national and international institutions are examined and it is assessed whether these projections convey a reliable view about future economic developments and whether there is scope for improving their predictive content. |
| Subjects: | | Potential output projections forecast evaluation |
| JEL: | | C53 E27 E23 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des ZEW ZEW Discussion Papers
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| dp07068.pdf | | 569.66 kB | Adobe PDF |
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