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Title:Why Are Asset Returns Predictable? PDF Logo
Authors:Lüders, Erik
Issue Date:2002
Series/Report no.:ZEW Discussion Papers 02-48
Abstract:Starting from an information process governed by a geometric Brownian motion we show that asset returns are predictable if the elasticity of the pricing kernel is not constant. Declining [Increasing] elasticity of the pricing kernel leads to mean reversion and negatively autocorrelated asset returns [mean aversion and positively autocorrelated asset returns]. Under nonconstant elasticity of the pricing kernel financial ratios as the price-earnings ratio have predictive power for future asset returns. In addition, it is shown that asset prices will be governed by a time-homogeneous stochastic differential equation only under the constant elasticity pricing kernel. Hence, usually asset price processes do not satisfy the assumptions needed for empirical estimation.
Subjects:Pricing kernel
Diffusion processes
Stationarity
Predictability of asset returns
Autocorrelation
JEL:G12
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:ZEW Discussion Papers
Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des ZEW

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