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Title:Do business-related services really lag behind manufacturing industries in the business cycle? PDF Logo
Authors:Kaiser, Ulrich
Voß, Katrin
Issue Date:1999
Series/Report no.:ZEW Discussion Papers 99-34
Abstract:In an a priori view, it is usually assumed that the business cycle of manufacturing industries leads the business cycle of the service sector. This seems to be even more plausible for the relationship between business-related services, whose high growth rates in recent years were largely due to increased outsourcing activities of the manufacturing sector. In this paper it is shown that the relationship is not as simple as it appears at first sight. We run Granger causality tests between sales growth rates of the business-related service sector against growth rates of various series of the manufacturing sector. It turns out that the relationship between business-related services and manufacturing is either contemporaneous or bi-directional, while no evidence is given for manufacturing leading business-related services.
Subjects:business cycle
Granger causality
business-related services
JEL:C22
E32
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:ZEW Discussion Papers
Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des ZEW

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