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dc.contributor.authorHüfner, Felix P.en_US
dc.contributor.authorLahl, Daviden_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-02-16T14:47:31Z-
dc.date.available2009-02-16T14:47:31Z-
dc.date.issued2003en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/23983-
dc.description.abstractThis paper analyzes which factors are driving the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. Using the results of a poll among survey participants as well as Granger causality tests we identify three groups of influence factors: other sentiment indicators, financial variables and real economy data. In a second step these factors are used to estimate out-of-sample forecasts for the ZEW Indicator. We find that a simple model that includes German manufacturing order data, the German yield structure and the US Consumer Confidence indicator as explanatory variables is able to outperform a naive univariate benchmark model as well as the consensus forecast for the ZEW Indicator as published by news agencies.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherZentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Mannheim-
dc.relation.ispartofseriesZEW Discussion Papers 03-48en_US
dc.subject.jelE32en_US
dc.subject.jelE37en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordleading indicatorsen_US
dc.subject.keywordGermanyen_US
dc.subject.keywordzewen_US
dc.subject.keywordforecastingen_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturindikatoren_US
dc.subject.stwGeschäftsklimaen_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturprognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden_US
dc.titleWhat Determines the ZEW Indicator?en_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn369922530en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:zewdip:1357-
Appears in Collections:Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des ZEW
ZEW Discussion Papers

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