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Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), Mannheim >
ZEW Discussion Papers >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/23983
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Full metadata record
| DC Field | | Value | | Language |
| dc.contributor.author | | Hüfner, Felix P. | | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | | Lahl, David | | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | | 2009-02-16T14:47:31Z | | - |
| dc.date.available | | 2009-02-16T14:47:31Z | | - |
| dc.date.issued | | 2003 | | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/23983 | | - |
| dc.description.abstract | | This paper analyzes which factors are driving the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. Using the results of a poll among survey participants as well as Granger causality tests we identify three groups of influence factors: other sentiment indicators, financial variables and real economy data. In a second step these factors are used to estimate out-of-sample forecasts for the ZEW Indicator. We find that a simple model that includes German manufacturing order data, the German yield structure and the US Consumer Confidence indicator as explanatory variables is able to outperform a naive univariate benchmark model as well as the consensus forecast for the ZEW Indicator as published by news agencies. | | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | | eng | | en_US |
| dc.publisher | | Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Mannheim | | - |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | | ZEW Discussion Papers 03-48 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | E32 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | E37 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.ddc | | 330 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | leading indicators | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | Germany | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | zew | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | forecasting | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Konjunkturindikator | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Geschäftsklima | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Konjunkturprognose | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Prognoseverfahren | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Deutschland | | en_US |
| dc.title | | What Determines the ZEW Indicator? | | en_US |
| dc.type | | Working Paper | | en_US |
| dc.identifier.ppn | | 369922530 | | en_US |
| dc.rights | | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | | - |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des ZEW ZEW Discussion Papers
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| dp0348.pdf | | 306.62 kB | Adobe PDF |
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