|
EconStor >
Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), Mannheim >
ZEW Discussion Papers >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/23983
|
| | |
| Title: | | What Determines the ZEW Indicator?  |
| Authors: | | Hüfner, Felix P. Lahl, David |
| Issue Date: | | 2003 |
| Series/Report no.: | | ZEW Discussion Papers 03-48 |
| Abstract: | | This paper analyzes which factors are driving the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. Using the results of a poll among survey participants as well as Granger causality tests we identify three groups of influence factors: other sentiment indicators, financial variables and real economy data. In a second step these factors are used to estimate out-of-sample forecasts for the ZEW Indicator. We find that a simple model that includes German manufacturing order data, the German yield structure and the US Consumer Confidence indicator as explanatory variables is able to outperform a naive univariate benchmark model as well as the consensus forecast for the ZEW Indicator as published by news agencies. |
| Subjects: | | leading indicators Germany zew forecasting |
| JEL: | | E32 E37 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des ZEW ZEW Discussion Papers
|
| Files in This Item:
| |
| File |
Description |
Size | Format |
| dp0348.pdf | | 306.62 kB | Adobe PDF |
|
| No. of Downloads:
| |
| last Month |
last 3 Month |
total |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| | |
Download bibliographical data as:
BibTeX
|
| |
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/23983
|
Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
|