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Title:Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models PDF Logo
Authors:Clements, Michael P.
Franses, Philip Hans
Swanson, Norman R.
Issue Date:2003
Series/Report no.:Working papers / Rutgers University, Department of Economics 2003,09
Abstract:In this paper we discuss the current state-of-the-art in estimating, evaluating, and selecting among non-linear forecasting models for economic and financial time series. We review theoretical and empirical issues, including predictive density, interval and point evaluation and model selection, loss functions, data-mining, and aggregation. In addition, we argue that although the evidence in favor of constructing forecasts using non-linear models is rather sparse, there is reason to be optimistic. However, much remains to be done. Finally, we outline a variety of topics for future research, and discuss a number of areas which have received considerable attention in the recent literature, but where many questions remain.
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Working Papers, Department of Economics, Rutgers University

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