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Diskussionspapiere, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Universität Hannover >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/22434
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| Title: | | Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems  |
| Authors: | | Beckmann, Daniela Menkhoff, Lukas Sawischlewski, Katja |
| Issue Date: | | 2005 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Diskussionspapiere des Fachbereichs Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universität Hannover 322 |
| Abstract: | | Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despite this limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises. Second, policy-makers must decide about some EWSs' elements, such as the sensitivity of the forecasts. Third, EWSs' performance is increased by taking a logit model, shorter samples and a regional approach. Fourth, the finding of contagion may motivate policy to shield its economy against inefficient international financial markets. |
| Subjects: | | early warning system currency crises emerging markets |
| JEL: | | F31 F37 F33 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Diskussionspapiere, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Universität Hannover
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