Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/22341 
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dc.contributor.authorJokisch, Sabineen
dc.contributor.authorHalder, Gitteen
dc.contributor.authorFehr, Hansen
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-29T14:57:19Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-29T14:57:19Z-
dc.date.issued2004-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/22341-
dc.description.abstractAll countries in the European Union stand at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Especially Germany will realize an enormous aging of its population. The reasons for this development are twofold: On the one hand, the number of elderly will more than double over the coming decades. On the other hand, since fertility rates are projected to stay at a low level, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will decline. Due to very generous social security systems this aging process is expected to put enormous pressure on future government expenses. To address the consequences of population aging in Germany, this paper develops a dynamic, intergenerational demographic life-cycle model. The model features immigration, age-specific fertility, life span extension and life span uncertainty. Cohorts within the model differ in their human capital profiles and leave bequests arising from incomplete annuitization. We also incorporate the German pension, health care and long-term care system. After introducing the theoretical model, we simulate the transition path including reforms of the pension system imposed by the so called "Riester" reform and keeping current immigration constant. The results are presented for the case of a closed and a small open economy.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aUniversity of Würzburg, Department of Economics |cWürzburgen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aW.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers |x48en
dc.subject.jelJ11en
dc.subject.jelH55en
dc.subject.jelD58en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordDemographic transitionen
dc.subject.keywordoverlapping generations (OLG)en
dc.subject.keywordcomputable general equilibrium models (CGE)en
dc.subject.stwAlternde Bevölkerungen
dc.subject.stwBevölkerungsökonomieen
dc.subject.stwOverlapping Generationsen
dc.subject.stwAllgemeines Gleichgewichten
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden
dc.titleA Simulation Model for the Demographic Transition in Germany: Data Requirements, Model Structure and Calibration-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn381609278en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:wuewep:48en

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