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W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers, Lst. f. VWL, Geld u. internat. Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, Universität Würzburg >

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dc.contributor.authorJokisch, Sabineen_US
dc.contributor.authorHalder, Gitteen_US
dc.contributor.authorFehr, Hansen_US
dc.coverage.temporal2002-2100en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-29T14:57:19Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-29T14:57:19Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/22341-
dc.description.abstractAll countries in the European Union stand at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Especially Germany will realize an enormous aging of its population. The reasons for this development are twofold: On the one hand, the number of elderly will more than double over the coming decades. On the other hand, since fertility rates are projected to stay at a low level, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will decline. Due to very generous social security systems this aging process is expected to put enormous pressure on future government expenses. To address the consequences of population aging in Germany, this paper develops a dynamic, intergenerational demographic life-cycle model. The model features immigration, age-specific fertility, life span extension and life span uncertainty. Cohorts within the model differ in their human capital profiles and leave bequests arising from incomplete annuitization. We also incorporate the German pension, health care and long-term care system. After introducing the theoretical model, we simulate the transition path including reforms of the pension system imposed by the so called "Riester" reform and keeping current immigration constant. The results are presented for the case of a closed and a small open economy.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisheren_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWürzburg economic papers 48en_US
dc.subject.jelJ11en_US
dc.subject.jelH55en_US
dc.subject.jelD58en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordDemographic transitionen_US
dc.subject.keywordoverlapping generations (OLG)en_US
dc.subject.keywordcomputable general equilibrium models (CGE)en_US
dc.subject.stwAlternde Bevölkerungen_US
dc.subject.stwBevölkerungsökonomieen_US
dc.subject.stwOverlapping Generationsen_US
dc.subject.stwAllgemeines Gleichgewichten_US
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden_US
dc.titleA Simulation Model for the Demographic Transition in Germany : Data Requirements, Model Structure and Calibrationen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn381609278en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:wuewep:48-
Appears in Collections:W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers, Lst. f. VWL, Geld u. internat. Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, Universität Würzburg

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