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dc.contributor.authorMoura, Guilherme V.en_US
dc.contributor.authorRichard, Jean-Françoisen_US
dc.contributor.authorLiesenfeld, Romanen_US
dc.description.abstractWe use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity and serially correlated errors in order to analyze the determinants and the dynamics of current-account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood evaluation of these models requires high-dimensional integration for which we use a generic procedure known as Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS). Our empirical results suggest that current account balance, terms of trades, foreign reserves and concessional debt are important determinants of the probability of current-account reversal. Furthermore we find under all specifications evidence for serially correlated error components and weak evidence for state dependence.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEconomics working paper / Christian-Albrechts-Universität Kiel, Department of Economics 2007,11en_US
dc.subject.keywordPanel dataen_US
dc.subject.keywordDynamic discrete choiceen_US
dc.subject.keywordCurrent account reversalsen_US
dc.subject.keywordImportance Samplingen_US
dc.subject.keywordMonte Carlo integrationen_US
dc.subject.keywordState dependenceen_US
dc.titleDynamic Panel Probit Models for Current Account Reversals and their Efficient Estimationen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
Appears in Collections:Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics, CAU Kiel

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