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dc.contributor.authorFertig, Michaelen_US
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Christoph M.en_US
dc.coverage.temporal1998-2017en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T16:18:44Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T16:18:44Z-
dc.date.issued2000en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/21026-
dc.description.abstractAssessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to extrapolate from these estimates on the basis of conditioning information that is assumed to be known with certainty. In this context, this strategy faces formidable problems that exceed the usual difficulties arising for the prediction of economic variables. This paper addresses this extrapolation problem formally, with an application to the case of EU-enlargement and the ensuing migration streams to be expected from Eastern Europe.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisheren_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesIZA Discussion paper series 183en_US
dc.subject.jelJ61en_US
dc.subject.jelJ11en_US
dc.subject.jelC23en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordDemographic Structureen_US
dc.subject.keywordVariance Componentsen_US
dc.subject.keywordGMMen_US
dc.subject.stwInternationale Wanderungen_US
dc.subject.stwMobilitäten_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwBevölkerungsstrukturen_US
dc.subject.stwMomentenmethodeen_US
dc.subject.stwEU-Erweiterungen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwOstmitteleuropaen_US
dc.subject.stwEinwanderungen_US
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden_US
dc.titleAggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streamsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn319833852en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
Appears in Collections:IZA Discussion Papers, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA)

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